Proven Realty | Brokered by eXp Realty View Listings
WEEKLY BAKKEN READ
Diesel Hit a Record $6.50
who wins and who pays
in Western ND real estate
Here is the part most coverage is missing: crude is dropping while diesel keeps climbing. WTI fell from around $100 to roughly $92 in days, and diesel still set a record at $6.51 a gallon.
Here is what actually moved this month, and what it does to the numbers on your property:
01
The Divergence
That $8 a barrel disappeared on nothing but talk of U.S.-Iran diplomacy and recovering Saudi exports. The Gulf Coast diesel crack spread blew past $100 a barrel in early September, about five times its pre-conflict level, so this is a distillate shortage layered on top of the oil story.
02
The Diesel
Diesel is up from $3.69 a year ago, ND pumps topped $6 heading into harvest, and farmers are paying roughly double what they paid last fall. The old June 2022 record was $5.82, but the inflation-adjusted 2008 peak was higher at about $7.20 in today's dollars, so this is a nominal record, not a real one.
03
The Rigs
North Dakota's rig count jumped from 26 in July to 33 in August, operators running rigs went from 14 to 19, and completions hit 74. Statewide production reached about 1.153 million barrels a day in June, with Bakken crude selling at a premium to the U.S. benchmark. Bakken breakevens sit at $50 to $65 a barrel, so even at $92 oil the drilling math still works.
04
The Rate Move
The Fed raised rates on September 16, and the 30-year fixed average hit 6.95%, up from 6.26% a year ago. That is $1,986 a month on a $300,000 loan instead of $1,849, about $137 more every month.
Four signals moving at once: crude falling, diesel setting records, rigs jumping, rates rising. Which one hits you first depends on what you own.
With $400M+ negotiated across multiple Bakken cycles, my read is short: do not underwrite your next deal at $92 oil. Diesel and rig counts move faster than the payment on your house, and the September 16 rate move is the signal that actually hit buyers this month.
The post breaks down the pros and cons by property type, from home buyers to shop and land owners, so you can find your row before you make a move:
Read: Who Wins, Who Pays  →
Wondering how today's oil and rate moves hit your property? I'm at (701) 369-3949.
Erik Peterson
Erik Peterson
Broker/Owner, Proven Realty brokered by eXp
(701) 369-3949
[email protected]

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Bakken Real Estate Market Snapshot

WILLISTON
MEDIAN LIST
$460,000
▼ from $467,500
ACTIVE LISTINGS
69
▼ from 72
DAYS ON MARKET
90
▲ from 82
Prices pulled back and inventory tightened but homes are sitting longer.
WATFORD CITY
MEDIAN LIST
$466,640
▲ from $460,000
ACTIVE LISTINGS
29
— flat
DAYS ON MARKET
67
▲ from 64
Prices bounced back but homes are still moving slower than late summer pace.
DICKINSON
MEDIAN LIST
$375,000
— flat
ACTIVE LISTINGS
80
— flat
DAYS ON MARKET
121
▼ from 117
Prices and inventory held. Dickinson stays the slowest Bakken market.
THE TAKEAWAY
Mixed week across the Bakken. Williston softened on price but inventory tightened. Watford City firmed on price. Dickinson held steady. Days on market are stretching across the board, which is the story that matters heading into fall. Sellers who priced correctly are still closing. Overpriced listings are the ones adding weeks to the calendar.

Get the Full Report Here →

Featured Properties

Williston Shop Condos
313 60TH AVE W
SHOP CONDOS · HWY 2
61 units
1,500 TO 2,280 SF · FROM $225/SF
16 foot sidewalls, association-maintained exterior. Buildings 1 through 4 deliver Fall 2026.
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Office Space Available for Immediate Occupancy

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North Dakota Events

WABA’s Annual Parade of Homes

We are checking out new homes and some fabulous remodels on Saturday, September 26, during WABA's annual Autumn Parade of Homes PLUS a bonus Shop Condo listing. Join us to see new trends in home construction, tour homes and ask questions!

Sep
25
Fri
Farm to Table
A Chamber evening celebrating North Dakota agriculture, with a keynote from ND Farmers Union president Matt Perdue.
Williston Area Chamber, 10 Main St · 5:30–7:30 PM
Sep
25
Fri
Wild West Weekend & Rodeo Finals
Three rounds of NDRA rodeo plus a western art show, cowboy culture gathering, and two nights of rodeo dances.
McKenzie County Ag Expo · Sep 25–27 · $20 rodeo
Sep
26
Sat
Main Street Market
Seasonal downtown market with local produce, handmade crafts, artisan goods, and specialty foods.
Downtown Williston · Sat 9 AM–12 PM · thru Oct 3
Sep
26
Sat
Oktoberfest Mug & Glass Painting
An Oktoberfest class at the Rough Rider Center where you paint your own beer mug or wine glass.
Rough Rider Center · 3–5 PM · $20

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