01

The Dip

Median list prices dipped in all three markets I work: Williston to $467,500 from $472,500, Watford City to $460,000 from $463,320, Dickinson to $375,000 from $379,950, per Altos Research. Days on market in Williston moved from 75 to 82, and Watford City sits at 64, so sellers are getting more negotiable heading into winter.

02

The Rate Math

Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 6.35% a year ago and 6.76% on September 10, with daily lender quotes pushing past 7% this week. On a $467,500 home with 20% down, that rate move adds $101.08 a month, or $1,212.98 a year, in principal and interest alone.

03

The Leverage

The real leverage right now is in repair credits, closing cost contributions, possession dates, and inspection items, not the list price.

04

The $20B Wave

Williams County landed 21 qualifying corporate projects representing more than $20 billion in announced investment, and almost none of that payroll has arrived. Four projects alone account for $18.4B: Critical Data House ($10B, 455 MW), Cerilon GTL ($3.2B in Trenton), Atlas Data Systems ($1.2B), Basin Electric ($4B). The 300-acre Critical Data House site was previously planned as Northstar Center, a 2,000-home development. The mix is 10 energy, 5 data centers, 6 logistics, so shop space and industrial land are as much in play as houses. Our Williston Shop Condos are a live product for that wave: 61 units, starting at $225 per sqft, Buildings 1-4 delivering this fall.

05

Affordability

Minneapolis Fed research shows renter cost burden actually fell in Williston, Dickinson, and Minot from 2019 to 2023, while Bismarck climbed 43 to 55 percent and Fargo 37 to 41 percent. Watford City's median home value is $408,500, close to four times local median household income, so affordable is not the same as easy.